'Customers will end up pre-buying laptops, even at inflated rates. The same is true for second-hand and refurbished pieces that a company's authorised stores sell.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday kept key repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent in view of rising inflation and faint signs of economic growth amid gradual lifting of coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown. The central bank's newly-constituted monetary policy committee (MPC) began its three-day meeting on October 7 and maintained the stance as accommodative. It also kept the reverse repo rate unchanged at 3.35 per cent.
Five per cent growth is disappointing but only after having reached nine per cent. However, it is still not all that bad, says Andrew Michael Spence.
The overall inflation in March fell to 5.96 per cent.
Here are the highlights of the monetary policy announced by RBI governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday.
More rate cut by RBI unlikely this fiscal, say Ind-Ra
The criticism that the Reserve Bank of India was behind the curve in hiking interest rate to tame rising inflation is unfair, former RBI Governor D Subbarao said on Wednesday and asserted that it is difficult for any central bank to anticipate the future more accurately. Earlier this month, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the central bank's rate-setting panel, surprised the markets with a 40 basis points hike in repo rate in an off-cycle policy meeting. It was also the first rate hike after August 2018, amid spiralling inflation.
On the back of sound macroeconomic policies and softer commodity prices, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures, said the Reserve Bank's annual report released on Tuesday. It, however, added that slowing global growth, protracted geopolitical tensions and a possible upsurge in financial market volatility following new stress events in the global financial system could pose downside risks to growth. "On the back of sound macroeconomic policies, softer commodity prices, a robust financial sector, a healthy corporate sector, continued fiscal policy thrust on quality of government expenditure, and new growth opportunities stemming from global realignment of supply chains, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures," it said.
Consumer goods firms and auto companies are witnessing an upturn in rural demand, which had been lagging for most of FY24. Expectations of a bumper rabi crop harvest have helped turn the tide. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged last week, noting that as rural demand catches up, consumption is expected to support economic growth in 2024-25.
With pricing power of producers unlikely to strengthen and commodities ex-crude oil likely to remain sluggish in the immediate term, the core-WPI inflation may remain sub-zero in the rest of this calendar year.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status quo on interest rates in its forthcoming monetary policy review but may change the stance in view of retail inflation piercing its upper tolerance limit, global uncertainties created by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and the urgency to protect and boost growth, feel experts. The RBI governor-headed rate setting panel -- Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) -- will be holding its first meeting of the 2022-23 fiscal from April 6 to 8. The outcome will be announced on April 8.
The overall market breadth remained firm as 1,673 stocks are advancing while 1,303 are declining.
With the first quarter earnings season coming to an end, the domestic equity markets would be driven by global trends and trading activity of foreign investors this week, analysts said. The movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee against the dollar would also drive trends in the market. "Macroeconomic indicators, trends in global stock markets and FII activities will be pivotal in shaping market trends in the coming days," Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection to 8.8 per cent for 2022 from 9.1 per cent earlier, citing high inflation. In its update to Global Macro Outlook 2022-23, Moody's said high-frequency data suggests that the growth momentum from December quarter 2021 carried through into the first four months this year. However, the rise in crude oil, food and fertilizer prices will weigh on household finances and spending in the months ahead.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to leave benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance as the economy faces heat of the second Covid wave.
Benchmark 10-year bond yields hit a 13-month peak as bond traders priced in more aggressive monetary easing next year.
'I don't think we have ever seen such alignment of everything that we need in the banking sector.'
In the Sensex pack, other gainers were Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Hero MotoCorp, HUL, Asian Paints, HDFC duo and ONGC -- gaining as much as 2.87 per cent.
In its third quarter review of monetary policy, the RBI in January raised the key repo rate by 0.25 per cent to 8 per cent in a bid to curb inflation.
When he didn't respond (Mr Saver has lost count of how many relationship managers he has had in the past few years!), the gentleman landed up at his doorstep and started pleading with him to open fixed deposits with the bank, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Foreign flows into Indian equities are expected to pause in the short to medium term, say analysts. The outlook is influenced by multiple factors, including rising oil prices, actions from global central banks, climbing bond yields, and the dollar index gaining prominence. "Valuations appear rich with the markets at record highs.
RBI wants to introduce these as an alternative to gold.
Banks depend on the repo window for their liquidity requirements and since borrowings under repo are capped, banks have to go to the MSF for additional fund requirements.
The 30-share Sensex closed lower by 256 points at 25,610.
Ahead of the 2023-24 Union Budget, the thinking at the top level of the central government is clear: Gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6-6.5 per cent is a comfortable enough target for FY24 and the focus should be on fiscal consolidation to ensure that the sovereign cost of borrowing does not become prohibitively expensive in a high-interest rate environment, according to people in the know. Those aware of deliberations between the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) and the Ministry of Finance said while the Budget would look to strike a balance between infrastructure investment and welfare schemes, it is unlikely to be populist, though it will be the last full-year Budget before the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Incidentally, 6-6.5 per cent GDP growth is what the upcoming 2022-23 Economic Survey is expected to project for FY24.
The government on Saturday imposed a 40 per cent duty on the export of onions to increase domestic availability amid signs of increasing prices. The export duty, which is the first time ever on onion, has been imposed as the retail sale price of the kitchen staple, according to government data, touched Rs 37/kg on Saturday in Delhi. The finance ministry through a Customs notification imposed a 40 per cent export duty on onions till December 31, 2023.
The change from wholesale to retail inflation as an anchor means that the weightage of diesel in inflation has decreased
'More than investors, fund houses, and advisors have raised caution and limited flows on small-and mid-caps.'
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty halted their five-day rally on Tuesday and settled deep in the red, mirroring weak global markets, with decline in index heavyweights Reliance Industries, Infosys and HDFC Bank. Despite opening with gains of over 200 points, the 30-share Sensex turned highly volatile and tumbled 709.17 points or 1.26 per cent to close at 55,776.85. During the day, the benchmark index plunged 1,067.07 points or 1.88 per cent to 55,418.95. The broader NSE Nifty also declined 208.30 points or 1.23 per cent to close at 16,663.
A 6-7 million tonnes shortfall in rice production due to a fall in paddy sowing area is likely to keep rice prices at elevated levels, adding to the inflationary pressure that the slowing economy is already grappling with. Elevated food prices, including that of cereals, had led to retail inflation reversing a three-month declining trend, to touch 7 per cent in August. Similarly, the wholesale price inflation, which declined to 11-month low, also showed price pressures from cereals resulting from wheat output being impacted by severe heat waves in some parts of the country.
Most brokerages are betting that the new government will shift to a policy focussing on boosting rural incomes and consumption since that has clearly been a pain point.
Changing aspirations and strong rural demand could explain why core inflation may not decline fast enough.
The party promised to contain inflation, pursue tax reforms and promote foreign investments.
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
Interest rates on home and retail loans are expected to rise, as a fallout of Reserve Bank announcing a 0.5 per cent hike in Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to squeeze money supply to rid the economy of inflation. The CRR, the amount of funds banks are required to park with the apex bank, has been raised to 8 per cent to suck out Rs 18,500-crore liquidity from the system.
Discount retailer DMart (Avenue Supermarts) hit its highest levels in a year and a half last week and is up over 11 per cent in the last one month. The company depends on low operating costs to offer the lowest prices to consumers, which enables sales velocity and scale, further reducing costs. This virtuous feedback loop has helped DMart gain market share in a sector dominated by unorganised stores.
Rajan addressed a group of investors in Boston on Thursday.
Stock markets would take cues from the biggest event of the week -- the US Fed interest rate decision, besides tracking the trends in global markets and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Last week, a heavy decline in smallcap, midcap firms, foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices in the international market dented investors' sentiments. Experts said equity markets may remain volatile in the near-term amid a host of global central bank's monetary policy decisions lined up during the week.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday said the new tax regime will benefit the middle class as it will leave more money in their hands. Talking to reporters after the customary post-Budget address to the central board of the RBI, she said it is not necessary to induce individuals to invest through government schemes but give them an opportunity to make a personal decision regarding investments. "...the way we allowed for standard deduction and also the rates which have been fixed, tax rates which have been fixed for different slabs, it has actually left more money in the hands of the people, the taxpayer, the household," she said.
Rajan had said that there was lack of clarity about the new method.
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